Mighty China’s Tenacity: 

Entre the Dragonomics (Part-II)

It is somewhat known that much of China’s long held double digit growth has been internally driven. However, current single figure GDP growth has in part been due to global economic conditions. And although its GDP per capita ranks around 90^th in the world ($4,200 versus $24,000 in the US); by the end of this decade, GDP per person in Shanghai, could be almost the same as the average for America back in 2009.

In the face of this, Beijing is determined to continue with its unprecedented infrastructure developments. Bear in mind that less than a third of China’s infrastructure has only begun modernization. Many hundreds of millions of people and vast territories have yet to be brought into the 21^st century technological fold. And that is the key point: China is still a rapid development nation. Urbanisation and internal migration is a massive matter within China looking at the unparalleled numbers. And there is a considerable economic tailwind from urbanization.

Shanghai’s trade and finance zone, for example, is home to 51 skyscrapers. A new skyscraper is built every five days across China, and by 2016 the country will have 800 sky kissers, four times the number in the USA. Five of the world’s 10 tallest buildings are already in China; but construction on more than 200 skyscrapers have begun in 2012 alone.

As for mass transit projects nationwide, China has approved 25 new subway projects, including five projects in Shanghai. Second-tier cities such as Xiamen in Fujian Province and Taiyuan in Shanxi Province are also developing metro lines.

By 2020, 40 cities in China will have subways covering a total length of more than 7,000 km, 4.3 times the current length. A total of 13 new highway projects were also approved recently, covering a total distance of 2,000 km. Municipal governments will be spending approximately ¥10 trillion ($1.57 trillion) on these new infrastructure projects until 2016.

And if you think that is extraordinary, as I write, the world’s tallest building is Dubai’s Burj Khalifa; taking five years to reach its 828-meter height. However, by the time you read this, a Chinese firm called Broad Sustainable Building (BSB) would have left the Dubai structure in the sand by erecting a taller 220-storey Sky City Scraper within 3 months.

Despite its gargantuan size, the building is designed to use one-fifth the energy of a traditional edifice (its 6-inch-thick walls and quadruple-glaze windows provides better insulation). When it is complete, 104 elevators will connect 220 floors and 1 million square meters of usable space.

This magnitude of attitude and scale pours into the city of Beijing’s underground metro system as well. 20 years ago, Beijing did not even have a Tube. Today, it has the largest subterranean train system in the world, achieving in twenty years what London (the first underground railway) has not achieved in one-hundred years. The government also wants the high-speed railway network, already the world’s longest at 8,300kms, to quintuple in length by 2015.

As of 2011, there were 21,638 general hospitals in China. With a recent announced of the construction of 20,000 new hospitals (2,000 county-level hospitals, 29,000 township hospitals and upgrading of 5,000 township hospitals).  The government will also finance the construction of village clinics in remote areas so that every village will have a clinic in the next three years. In addition, 3,700 community health centers and 11,000 community health stations would be set up or upgraded in cities.

China’s economy is so colossal, and its weight to the world so great, that it is easy to forget the country’s property market is still in its adolescence. Two decades ago most city families were relegated to rundown accommodation provided by their state-owned employer. Today, 36 million new affordable housing units, more than Britain’s entire housing stock, is under construction in Beijing. The idea being, affordable homes makes it easier for the Chinese to get into the housing market (are you listening and learning London, New York, Madrid?).

Clearly increasing city life means increasing numbers of middle class. As an example China will be the major contributor of new business and tourist travelers. Of the worldwide 800 million new travelers expected by 2014; 360 million (45 percent) will travel on Asia Pacific routes and of those 360 million 214 million will be associated with China (181 million domestic and 33 million international).

Civil aviation in China is anticipated to grow at 11 percent per annum till 2015, requiring a total of 1,100 new aircraft. And it is perhaps no surprise that Chain’s private aviation sales increased by 400 percent in single year. US-based Gulfstream and Dassault Falcon are boosting their presence, as Chinese executives become aware of the benefits of travelling in their own aircraft.

Luxury seems to be on the mind of China’s rising middle classes. Art, jewellery and antique investments among HNWIs has driven up prices. China has overtaken the USA as the world’s largest market for art and antiques, representing 30 percent of the global market versus 29 percent in the USA. Diamonds and gold outperformed the market again in 2012 with a 19 percent price increase from the previous year. Chinese HNWIs are clearly motivated to acquire investments of passion by more than financial considerations; however, such investments will continue to play a role in HNWI-portfolios going forward, especially for HNWIs seeking investments with a low correlation to global financial markets.

China continues to drive luxury growth, with forecasts of an up to 22 percent boom. Luxury sales in China exceeded $257.73 billion in 2012. As a matter of Ferengi fact, Prada’s president, Patrizio Bertelli, said China would soon to be the world’s largest consumer market of luxury goods. So Prada boldly opened 18 retail stores in the Asia-Pacific region in 2011, eight in China. And Bain & Company analysts show that leather accessories, jewellery and watches are the most dynamic markets of all. Prada, Coach, Samsonite and L’Occitane have all seen sturdy sales growth in China recently. In the first three months of 2012, Coach’s sales revenue in China increased 60 percent from the same period in 2011. Lew Frankfort, CEO of Coach, said the main objective was to increase its brand awareness. Raising capital from the markets was a relatively easy second, he said.

And for you on the fly executives, Samsonite saw its sales income in China jump 57 percent in 2011 compared to 2010; making China its largest international market for handheld up-market plastic sacks (it is all in the Brand, see chapter-29 GigaBrands!)

You would think that this kind of premium souk would rage in the regions like Dubai or Monaco (it is, and more!). But word spreads like quick silver these days in the modern Orient. It seems that the impact of the so-called Great Firewall of China is obsolete: China is connected. With over 600 million Internet users, Chinese entrepreneurs and consumers are a frenetically nourished global consumer culture from high-end Roll-Royse luxury to high-tech supergadgets to élan sportswear brands. Hence, the world’s fastest Smartphone ‘Ascend D Quad’ was launched in early 2012 by high-tech Huawei; being first quad-core Smartphone, featuring a 720pHD touch-screen and an 8 megapixel camera.

In sportswear brands it is similar story. Li Ning launched its US retail website in March 2012, heavily branded with the slogan ‘Straight Out of New China;’ featuring a number of high-profile endorsements.  In fact, a fanfare end of the month promotion for special-edition ‘Year of the Dragon’ shoes caused their site to crash due to demand.

Chinese tech known no bounds. Chinese consumer electronics giant Haier demonstrated their ‘Brain Wave TV’, which allows users to control the action on their TV sets using their minds. The experimental technology was showcased alongside consumer-ready innovations such as 3D TVs with 2D to 3D conversion. And at the popular China International Fashion Week, the luxury brand NE-TIGER established what they call a ‘universal triumph;’ showcasing designs that reflect a transient Chinese-Western tradition and heritage. Hence, China’s impact on worldwide consumer tastes and trends is set to lead the world bearing in mind the numbers and international ambition. Expect East Asian savor and penchant to wield ever-more sway on American, European; and yes, African shopper tastes and cravings.

And the fact that most of these exports involve processing or handing goods: products imported into China, then tinkered with and sold overseas without much value-added. The export of commodity goods such as low-cost apparel or basic engineering components is incredibly high in volume. And that is where the majority of export value is made. However, as above, China intends to change that to higher value-added export trade arenas.

Avionics exports, for example, are potentially a colossal market for China (re above traveler figures). With such a surging legion of billionaires and swarms of millionaires, China is the fastest-growing market for Airbus corporate jets, with major options on aircraft over the next five years alone.

Comac (Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China) is currently developing the largest commercial airliner in Asia: the C919. A range of 168-190 seat airliners, expected to take maiden flight in 2014, with deliveries scheduled for 2016. Design and assembly of the aircraft will be completed in Shanghai using European and American technologies, including undercarriage systems, Michelin Tires, jet-turbines and flight control equipment. Eventually, China intends to produce a home grown jet-engine for the C919 by 2020.

Ireland’s Ryanair has had discussions with Comac about the purchase of the aircraft, signing an agreement to help develop the aircraft. Ryanair will share experience and expertise to assist C919 development. The target is to push the aircraft up to 200 seats, enabling Ryanair to lower costs.

Forget the ‘Made in China’ stigma. It should be clear by now that ambitious and confident Chinese brands and high end technology, is already catering to demanding consumers and commercial customs not only at home; but increasingly abroad.

And then there is inbound trade to China, which is the USA’s third largest export market; totaling a record $103 billion in 2012; trading chemicals, electronics, agricultures products, computer systems, transports equipment.

The USA and the EU for example has not, and certainly do not in the future intend to compete and export on mere commodities alone. In fact, commodities exports are a fraction of the total. Basic material and products exports are indeed prone to current exchange fluctuations, whether demand based or politically found. In the face of this, the EU in particular, especially the United Kingdom and Germany, intend to export higher-and-higher value goods and services in the future.

Boeing, for example, forecasts that China will need 5260 new commercial aircraft, valued at $670 billion over the next 20 years. China is forecast to be the second largest market for new commercial aircraft (after North America), as Asian travelers are beginning to care more about connectivity, efficiency and lower prices. Over 75 percent of Chinese demand will be new growth, rather than replacement or upgrade.

In fact, total global carrier demand will acquire in the region of $4 trillion worth of aircraft over the next 20 years, seeking more efficient models to offset elevated fuel prices and meet unyielding demand for journeys to and from emerging nations.

In roads to trading with China, on the other hand, have had many sticking points in the past. However, many industries such as telecommunications, low-energy lighting and solar-energy industries are beginning to open (re FYP above) to both foreign investment and the import of certain technologies. Two government policies may help assist in the penetration and eventual growth in import to China. First, technology transfer from foreign sources in return for market access; and second, harmonized R&D investment (re Ryanair above).

Knowledge and skills exchange has always had good negotiation leverage in business, and there is no reason for why China should not continue to engage here. For a start, Europe has incredibly advanced engineering craft, even esoteric skills that some may find hard to decipher. The UK, for example, has some of the best automotive engineering skills in the world. The majority of high-end performance car R&D is carried out in the UK (think Formula-1), ranging from the obscure meta-materials, to cryptic and ingenious engine design, to profound mechanical systems assembly and integration techniques. And then there is the US, with the best commercialisation and marketing skills in the world. So the west has the know-how and commercial skills; China has the markets. Good old fashion Quid Pro Quo.

Yet, modern China, like India, has yet to experience a true high-tech innovation revolution. Mainly they employ incremental innovations based on technological transfer and will need time to evolve to one where breakthrough and disruptive innovation is common.

This is because the mechanics of technological evolution is rather more complex than one might think. To use a metaphor, genuine breakthrough innovation is a bit like planning and then planting and nurturing a garden. You can train for technique and method and process, but China will take time to grow its transformational innovation capabilities. It takes time and effort to develop such new industrial complexes!

However, low-tech manufacturing ecologies – or Shenzhen as it is known in China – are at a point suited for simpler, lower complexity product innovations. What the Shenzhen systems offers is three decades of practice in making electronic systems through a network of manifold engineering skills, highly developed supply webs, acute experience of production processes and an eagerness to scale up production quickly. Apple iPhones, for example, are made via the Shenzhen program, as many of the electronic parts and assemblies utilise simple components and assembly and test techniques. The real trick in such systems innovation lies in conceiving the design and generating elegant software in the first place; which is a specialty of another successful Shenzhen, Silicon Valley.

Shenzhen network is an essential element of China’s international competence in manufacturing. It counts over 100 industrial network clusters in China; consisting of more than 3,000 small and medium-sized enterprises in the production chain. As long as China’s clusters maintain their edge, these jobs, whether producing iPads or socks, will not easily go back to America or Europe, even with the advent of US and EU instant production and cobot technology.

To maintain this edge, China needs to import not only hard, implicit knowledge, but tacit craft and scientific analysis skills. China may turn out 10,000 scientific and engineering related PhDs each year, but a degree, as advance as it is, does not transfers with it mature hard-earned scientific or engineering hands-on-know-how (I know! I’ve been a design engineer for over 30 years, and I still think I am scratching the surface).

Hence, for archetype, high-tech innovation to become integral to Chinese culture, it has many obstacles to climb. Another being a culture of obedience and observance to convention and prevailing rules. Risk taking, and positive conflict and confluence of ideas is an absolute necessity for innovation, which is much tempered in China. In many Chinese firms, traditional management systems and cultural barriers hold back such creative collaboration.

And that a big hurdle, as in the recent FYP makes clear that the emphasis must be on indigenous innovation. Hence, Chinese authorities now view innovation as critical to both the domestic economy’s long-term health and global competitiveness of Chinese firms. Innovation is right up the agenda. And the signs are there, as China’s proportion of global patent activity has doubled since 2005; where wind and solar-power industries feature heavily. In 2010, China obtained 1,652 US patents against the EUs 587 (telling!).

Mighty China’s Tenacity: Entre the Dragonomics (Part-III)

It is no surprise that much of Chinese innovation and manufacture stay within Chinese shores. Walk around any Chinese electrical store, and you will find consumer technologies and gadgets with performance and design comparable to Japanese and South Koran competitors. Which are all home grown Brands. Unicorn Smartphone, Huawei MedicPad 10FHD, not to mention Huawei’s TVs with internet browsers, are all home made. The thing you will notice is price, coming from a direct benefit of low cost manufacture (42’’ HDTV for $100).

A recent McKinsey Quarterly by Gordon Orr and Erik Roth ‘CEO’s guide to innovation in China!’ points out this situation:

‘What’s keeping innovative products and business models confined to China? In general, its market is so large that domestic companies have little incentive to adapt successful products for sale abroad. In many cases, the skills and capabilities of these companies are oriented toward the domestic market, so even if they want to expand globally, they face high hurdles. Many senior executives, for example, are uncomfortable doing business outside their own geography and language. Furthermore, the success of many Chinese models depends on local resources—for example, lower-cost labor, inexpensive land, and access to capital or intellectual property—that are difficult to replicate elsewhere. Take the case of mobile handsets: most Chinese manufacturers would be subject to significant intellectual property–driven licensing fees if they sold their products outside China.’

China’s trajectory with regard to high-tech innovation is set. Expertise in innovation will not only become an increasingly vital competitive advantage within China, but will, in time, also produce products and services that become serious contenders on the global stage.

China already has over 20 innovation city-hubs (not unlike Silicone Valley, CA) focusing on biotech, informatics and life-science. In semiconductors, the government has been consolidating innovation clusters to create centers of manufacturing excellence: communications equipment and alternative energy, pharmaceuticals, solar-power, consumer electronics, instant messaging, and online gaming. But none as yet are game changing innovations; only time will tell.

In particular, the future is on for the super-state to be the world’s largest market for renewable-energy technology. Chinese companies not only enjoy scale advantages, but also, in the case of solar technologies, use new manufacturing techniques to improve the efficiency of photo-voltaic panels. The government’s plan to have five million plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles on the road by 2020, is heavily supported by a mix of extensive subsidies, tax incentives for local companies and on road re-charge infrastructure.

Another area of improvement recognised by the FYP, is that few Chinese companies have the systematic ability to develop a deep understanding of customer needs and expectations. The Chinese are more often than not Manufacturing focused, rather than customer focused, in both culture and methodology. Hence a culture on internal focus remains a push model which only makes it increasingly hard to unlock pockets of profitable growth. In turn, shifting from delivery to creation requires more local research and development, as well as the nurturing of more market-driven organizations

But it is not all one way here, foreign corporations making inroads to China often let themselves down in this area as well. MacKinsey report again:

‘Many multinationals have these capabilities, but unless they have been operating in China for some years, they may well lack the domestic-market knowledge or relationships needed to apply them effectively. The solution—building a true domestic Chinese presence rather than an outpost—sounds obvious, but it’s difficult to carry out without commitment from the top. Too many companies fail by using “fly over” management. But some multinationals appear to be investing the necessary resources; for example, we recently met (separately) with top executives of two big industrial companies who were being transferred from the West to run global R&D organizations from Shanghai. The idea is to be closer to Chinese customers and the network of institutions and universities from which multinationals source talent.’

The idea is to be closer to Chinese customers and create networks of institutions and universities from which multinationals source talent.

And so, according to Hu Angang, dean of the Institute for Contemporary China Studies, China's economy may just become twice as big as the United States by 2017, and in time, larger than both the US and the EU combined by 2030. A bold and most optimistic prediction at a time when there are concerns about China's short-term prospects with GDP growth slowing. China still has a hurdle to jump just to pass the US, with $15.68 trillion in 2012.

China's workforce of 780 million is five times larger than the US' 153 million and that it now devotes 3 million person-years to R&D, twice the deployment of the US. Challenges loom large, however, including rising labour costs, pollution, a potential real estate bubble and rapid ageing arising from the government's one child policy. He believes the Chinese economy faces significant future headwinds, particularly with its labour force shrinking by 11 percent from 798 million in 2013 to 718 million in 2030.

By the trends, through to 2030, the three largest economies in the world could be (1) China, (2) India and (3) Brazil, and the United States (4). China is set to be at the top in next to no time.

Sponge Soaks Up Jet Engine Noise

Sound waves from loud engines disrupt neighbourhoods, cause hearing loss in workers nearby, and can even damage the engine itself. By muffling the noise of gas-turbine engines, a new device may also make them safer.

(Edited form Popular Mechanics).

A roaring jet engine is one of the loudest objects on earth. At 140 decibels, the noise is on par with gunshots and rock concerts, and can immediately and permanently damage human ears; even hearing protection can stave off damage only for short periods of time. And it's not just ears that are at risk: Intense sound waves from aircraft engines vibrate the plane's hardware, causing wear and, potentially, mechanical failure. "If engine damage occurs, it's very disastrous," says Ajay Agrawal , a mechanical engineer at the University of Alabama. 'It doesn't happen often, but it could happen at any time, and can destroy the engine within seconds.'

That's why Agrawal has been developing a device that could curb engine noise not just in aircraft, but in factories, power generators, machinery, and other engines. While most sound-reduction measures such as noise dampers and ear protection try to cope with the noise, Agrawal's new device is intended to prevent the sound from being generated in the first place by changing the way fluids flow through an engine.

Very Loud Vortices

In the heart of a combustion engine, fuel mixes with hot air. As the air and fuel are pumped into the combustor, turbulence and swirling vortices develop. These vortices vary in size, speed, and direction of flow. Differences in flow create differences in pressure inside the engine, and because sound consists of pressure waves flowing through a medium, the fluctuating pressures inside the combustor create noise.

Agrawal says that combustion is like a microphone for that noise. When fuel meets flame, combustion adds energy to those fluctuations, thus making them louder. Noise can come from other parts of the jet engine—for example, air pumps and spinning turbine blades—but Agrawal says that combustion's uneven energy release is the main source of the incredible noise.

Agrawal created a device that can be placed directly into a combustor. The porous, ring-shaped "sponge" is made of heat- and pressure-resistant hafnium carbide and silicon carbide. It's roughly the size and shape of a roll of electrical tape, but can be customized to match different engine types. The device is not commercially available yet, but considering gas-turbine engines can cost anywhere from $100,000 to tens of millions of dollars, Agrawal says the device would comprise a small fraction of the overall cost.

The Noise Sponge.

The sponge reduces engine noise in three ways. First, it evens out the air–fuel mixture inside the cylinder because the sponge's structure blocks some vortices from forming. By ensuring that the mixture flows evenly inside the combustor, the device reduces pressure differences, thus reducing sound production. It's the equivalent of whispering into a microphone instead of yelling, Agrawal says.

The second piece is reducing combustion's ability to amplify those sounds—turning down the volume on the microphone, in Agrawal's analogy. "The amount of amplification depends on how intense the combustion is," he says. "If you have a lot of heat in small area, there is a lot of amplification. If the heat is spread all over, amplification is lower." Because the sponge spreads the fuel more evenly across the chamber, overall combustion intensity is lower and so the sound waves are less powerful.

Thirdly, the device acts as an actual sponge that absorbs some sound waves after they're produced rather than letting them ricochet around the metal combustor.

Together, these three mechanisms enable the sponge to reduce aircraft-engine noise by as much as 30 decibels, Agrawal says. That cut is enough to bring a jet engine's roar from the level of a rock concert down to the level of a lawnmower or chainsaw—loud, but not deafeningly so. Agrawal's research was aided by a U.S. Navy grant and the Ultramet company.

Tim Lieuwen, an aerospace engineer at Georgia Tech', says the most interesting aspect of the new device is that it doesn't appear to harm engine performance while it reduces noise. Previous attempts to muffle the noise of gas-turbine engines had resulted in big losses in efficiency, he says. "In general, the more effort it takes to push air through the combustion chamber, the better it reduces sound." But that extra effort also makes the engine less fuel efficient. Lieuwen says that Agrawal's device provides the best of both worlds.

So far the noise sponge has been tested only in laboratory combustors, but Agrawal says he thinks it could easily be incorporated into aircraft engines; it can be designed to fit almost any engine, and can be added on as a retrofit.

Still, the only way to know whether the device can effectively reduce noise in gas-turbine engines would be to test it in a real-life scenario. If it works, it could help extend the life of aircraft and industrial machinery, and make workplace environments safer. And that's music to our ears.

Airbus have Plans to Experiment with 

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Auxiliary Power Units (APUs)

With the airline industry's commitment to halve 2005 CO2 emission levels by 2050 Airbus and others to accelerate the development of alternative jet fuels, Airbus is now getting behind a project to examine the potential for using hydrogen fuel cells on commercial airliners – not to power the jet engines, but to replace the Auxiliary Power Units (APUs).

prompting 

Located in the tapered tail cone section of the rear fuselage in commercial jet aircraft, APUs
are small gas turbine engines responsible for generating on-board electrical power and heat when the aircraft is on the ground, as well as providing power to start the main engines.

With the goal of realizing emission-free and low-noise operation when the aircraft is on the ground, Airbus has teamed with South Africa's National Aerospace Centre to jointly fund research to examine the potential for hydrogen fuel cells to replace APUs.

The three-year research project will be conducted by Hydrogen South Africa (HySA) Systems Competence Centre at its research facility located at the University of the Western Cape in Capetown.

In addition to cutting emissions and noise on the ground, the use of fuel cells would also offer numerous other benefits. Being lighter than an APU, and with the potential to also replace heavy batteries, they would reduce the weight of the aircraft and therefore also the amount of fuel burned and emissions produced by the aircraft while in the air.

Additionally, with fuel cells producing water as a byproduct, they would allow the aircraft to generate its own water supply. And with fuel cells having no moving parts, they would be easier and cheaper to maintain than fossil-fuel powered APUs.

With all their potential benefits, it's not surprising that this isn't the first time that Airbus has dipped its toes in the hydrogen fuel cell waters. The company has already performed test flights with fuel cells used to power individual power systems and tested a fuel cell-powered nose wheel that allows autonomous and emission-free taxiing.

"Although fuel cell technology for land vehicles has rapidly matured," says HySA Systems Director, Professor Bruno G. Pollet, "the new research with Airbus and the National Aerospace Centre is aimed at gaining an understanding of how hydrogen fuel cells could perform over an aircraft’s service life while subjected to the harsh and rapidly changing climatic and environmental regimes that commercial jetliners operate in."

Hydrogen-powered aircraft - or CRYOPLANE - is an airplane that uses hydrogen as a power-source. 

Hydrogen can jet engine can be used to power a fuel cell to generate electricity to power a propeller.

Unlike normal aircraft, which use wings for storing fuel, hydrogen aircraft are usually designed with the liquid hydrogen fuel carried inside the fuselage, in order to minimize surface-area and reduce boil-off.

Robots will over the next decade become as ubiquitous  as the smartphone
But you probably wont be able to see most of them, or even consider them to be a Robot

You may have heard the term 'Exponential Technologies (xT)?'

If you haven't it is technology the improves in terms of price-performance faster and faster. And exponential trend improvement curve starts out flat, but suddenly at the knee point takes off like a rocket.

Some say when a technology becomes digital it compounds in performance improvement. But that is not the whole story.

What drives exponential technology is 'Interconnections; or Connectivity'

Synergy comes about as the by-product of growing, interconnecting networks. Which of course we are experiencing today in every quarter of our lives. This is driven by the increase in the number of nodes, or here Robots in a network. As the number of nodes in a system increases in a linear fashion; so the increase in the number interconnection possibilities goes up in an exponential mode!

Here is an equation that begins to show the logic behind exponential growth in networks:

Pn=Na(Na -1)/2

Where Pn equals the potential total network and where Na is the number of nodes or agents. As the number of nodes accumulate linearly, the number of interconnection possibilities goes up geometrically. 

For example, take 4 nodes added in series: 1+1+1+1=4. You get a linear sum of 4.

Only, if you interconnect each node to each other, you begin to see a nonlinear synergy: 4a(4a-1)/2=6. As the number of nodes go up in linear series, a surprising number of interconnections possibilities emerge.

10a(10a-1)/2 = 45 connections possibilities.

100a(100a -1)/2 = 4,950

1000a(1000a-1)/2 = 299,500

10000a(10000a-1)/2 = 49,995,000

100000a(100000a-1)/2 = 4,999,950,000

Interconnect 1 million nodes, and: 1,000,000a(1,000,000a-1)/2 = ~4.99¹¹. One-million nodes would add up to over 499 billion interconnections.

The Laws of the Speed of Technological Innovation.

Moore’s Law, Nielson’s Law, Kurzweil’s Accelerating Returns Law, are enabled by the underlying mechanics of the space of innovation possibilities: Pn=Na(Na -1)/2.

To be brief, Moore’s Law; describes the constant that the number of potential transistors doubles every 18 months within the same geometric space until the scale begin to hit the weird world of the quantum space (10^-19 mm).

Nielsen’s Law says that the amounts of packaged bytes that can be sent down a line will double every 18 months.

Ray Kurzweil’s Law of Increasing Returns; says that technological evolution will accelerate by an exponent over time.

Harris’s Law of Increasing Diversity (me); says that technological and biological diversity expands in proportion to the number of potential interconnections. The richer the source of interconnections, the higher potential for innovation, the richer the potential for yet more nodes, and so on and so on.

Yet all of these laws are empowered by Pn=Na(Na -1)/2.

As Robots become interconnected via the Internet, they will form complex ecologies of Robots. As that happens, the number of Robots, along with price-performance, will grow and improve exponentially, whilst at the same time shrink toward the invisible.

Read at your leisure, this interesting article by By Matt Kwong: 'The Dawn of the Invisible Robot: Minuscule machines with big-data capabilities at the heart of the smart tech' revolution.' 

Matt is freelance journalist who writes about technology, science, and has written a fascinating and well-researched look at robotics in the Internet of Things:

'Bill Gates, the architect of the PC revolution, made a bold declaration not long ago forecasting another disruptive technology. “A Robot in Every Home,” his 2006 op-ed for Scientific American, described the kind of future in which bionic nurses care for the bedridden, wireless automatons do the yard work and service robots tidy up the household à la Rosie, the Jetsons’ humanoid maid. But in an age of WiFi and the ever-diminishing scale of microchips, personal automation doesn’t have to look like a robot with a feather duster.

It may not, in fact, look like anything at all.

“It could become invisible,” said John Horn, president of RACO Wireless, a company specialising in M2M (machine-to-machine) communications. “You’ll be able to embed this connectivity into just about anything in our lives. We’re seeing thousands of products communicating in real time, with modules so small they can fit on dog collars or wrist watches.”'

Click to read the rest of this.

The Shape of Things to Come: 

Robot Folding Washing (yes-yes!)

Next Future:Terrifying Technology Will Blow Your Mind Video

This video of a pannel discusion on the future of  technology 

is well worth a look.

Coming Age of Flying Cars

The flying car is coming. This is being enabled by the intersection of three converging technologies: high energy density batteries, autonomous navigation powered by differential GPS; and lightweight, high strength lightweight materials.

Under the wings of the XPRIZE Foundation; a multimillion dollar Transporter XPRIZE is being developed to inspire progress in this arena.

Various designs are under way with vertical takeoff, vertical landing capability. 

Something you can step into and shout, 'Take me to Brighton Beach Basketball Court.'

One example is Zee Aero, funded by Google. This flying car can take off and land vertically using a plethora of small electric motors turning four-bladed propellers and is narrow enough to fit into a standard shopping center parking space.

Another design, E-Volo’s Volocopter, is an electric two-passenger, 18-rotor vehicle.





The Moller Skycar is a personal vertical take-off and landing aircraft, invented by Moller, who has been attempting to develop such vehicles for fifty years.

The M400 Skycar, transports four people. It is described as a car since it is aimed at being a popular means of transport for anyone who can drive, incorporating automated flight controls, with the driver only inputting direction and speed require.

AeroMobil transforms in seconds from an automobile to an airplane that perfectly makes use of existing infrastructure created for automobiles and planes  for  real door-to-door travel. 

It fits into any standard parking space, uses regular gasoline, and can be used in road traffic just like any other car. As a plane it can use any airport in the world, but can also take off and land using any grass strip or paved surface just a few hundred meters long. 

It has been in regular flight-testing program in real flight conditions since October 2014 and is predominantly built from advanced composite materials. That includes its body shell, wings, and wheels. It also contains all the main features, such as avionics equipment, autopilot and an advanced parachute deployment system.

AeroMobil also implements a number of other advanced technologies, such as a variable angle of attack of the wings that significantly shortens the take-off requirements, and sturdy suspension that enables it to take-off and land even at relatively rough terrain. 

See AeroMobil video!

(Adapted from Peter Diamandis' blog).

 HENDO Hoverboard

It's finally here: The Back to the Future Hoverboard (well nearly)!!

Firstly, for it to work you'll need the floor to be made of metal, so unless you can convince your local council to replace all its pavements, you won't be flying anywhere.

Then there's the price.

The Hendo Hoverboard will set you back $10,000 (£6,000), so it's clearly a rich boy's toy.

But with this invention now working for real, maybe the Back to the Future concept is closer than ever to becoming a reality.

Hoverboards are something we’ve all wanted for so long.

This neat piece of tech was the star of a recent video uploaded to YouTube by Hendo Hover. 

The hoverboard was built by Greg and Jill Henderson and is now looking to raise $250,000 on Kickstarter, where they’ve managed to raise over $21,000 so far.

The board is powered by four different hover engines that emit a series of magnetic fields underneath the board, allowing it to hover above the surface.

As above, the Hendo Hoverboard requires a certain kind of steel surface in order to work, so the Hendo team will also be creating a pop-up skate-park kits specifically for Hendo owners.

              Back to the Future      

     Lexus’s Prototype Hoverboard

A casually attired lone figure rides into view on a skateboard. Dismounting with all the grace of a Russian ballerina, the individual saunters over to a waiting Hoverboard. 

'There’s no such thing as impossible, 'superimposes the ostentatious quote from Lexus Chief Engineer Haruhiko Tanahashi on the promo video trailer. 'It’s just a matter of figuring out how.'

So has the luxury car brand Lexus actually figured out how? 

It seems 2015 is the year of the hoverboard. 

Last month, IFLScience reported on Canadian inventor and engineer Catalin Alexandru Duru, who broke the world record for hoverboard flight distance on open water.

Keen "Back To The Future" fans will also have noticed that 2015 is the year Marty McFly famously rides his hoverboard in the second movie of the comic sci-fi fran.


Lexus’s hoverboard creation, however, appears to be much sleeker in design than Duru’s invention and more impressive than Marty's stolen vehicle of choice. Yet it's almost too impressive, if you’ve got your cynical "could-this-be-true" CGI hat on.

According to Lexus, research and development for the hoverboard has been in the works for about 18 months, during which time they have been working with a few unnamed professional skateboarders.

Embedded into the levitating board are liquid nitrogen-cooled superconductors and permanent magnets, which means the hoverboard can only be used on surfaces with a metal veneer. In case you’re skeptical of the hoverboard shown in the video, Lexus has confirmed that there is metal inlayed into the surface of the skatepark.

If the hoverboard shown isn’t real, it still looks very stylish. But if it is (and maybe I'm over-optimistic in hoping it is), we may have to wait for more information and release dates before the hoverboard becomes commercially available. 

Click to see advert!