Friday, 19 October 2007

Digital Terrestrial Broadcast: Not a Cock-up; but a Real Catastrophe Born of a Complete Lack of Foresight.

The big switch over has begun. UK Terrestrial TV is going digital.

How nice, how quaint.

You detect a hint of sarcasm.

No, it’s not sarcasm, it’s utter contempt.

Why?

Well the 20 years of planning (early meetings began way back in 1989) and the estimated £1 billion that has gone into R&D, infrastructure and switch over rollout is a complete waste and ultra-vein endeavour.

Why?

Nielsen's Law dictates exponential growth in Internet Bandwidth similar to the more established Moore's Law.

Comparing the two laws:

Moore's Law says that computers doubles in capabilities every 18 months: this corresponds to about 60% annual growth (or x100 over 10 years).

Nielsen's Law says that bandwidth doubles every two years (or x57 over 10 years).

Data supports Nielsen's Law:

The Internet backbone bandwidth in 1975 was on the order of 1000 bits per second (bps), by 1985 it was 1 million bps, by 1995 it had reached 100 million bps, and now in 2007 it is approaching 100 billion bps.

Going by the above trends, by the year 2014 most house holds in the UK will readily watch high definition documentaries, serials and films in real-time over the internet.

By 2018 high definition 3D TV programs with file sizes on the order of terra-terra bytes will be transferred in real-time over the Internet.

You wont want to get a signal over the airways, when you can plug your TV into the Internet and gain real-time, multiway, high definition TV and all that comes with it.

Terrestrial digital TV is biggest technological white elephant in recent history.
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