Author, Speaker, and Consultant on Hyperinnovation, Future Studies, GigaMarket$, The New Industrial Revolution, and Advanced Robotics and (iRev) Intelligence Revolution.
Friday, 5 February 2010
A guidebook for strategic decision-making for executives in technology and technology dependent industries.
Rochlin; Hunter or Hunter.
My book Hyperinnovation is an analysis of the dynamics of how ideas come-together to breed new markets.
But the ‘Hunter and the Hunted,’ is remarkable text, and I would say a deeper insight into multidimensional innovation.
The one things that stand out is the part on ‘Timing.’
It’s a heavy weight book, confirmed by the best of breed business managers I know.
Listen to Bob Frick;
“By drawing on a variety of research into the patterns that characterize the successful introduction of new technology, Rochlin has put together a useful resource for anyone engaged in developing strategy vis a vis innovation and change. Written in a style that is engaging for the average executive, but with insight for even the most advanced of technologists.”
Robert Frick, Former Vice Chairman of the Board and CFO of Bank of America
Testimial.
'For business executives, it is seldom clear whether a new and potentially disruptive technology represents an opportunity, a threat, or is simply a non-starter. Complexity and uncertainty often characterizes the competitive landscape and strategic choices surrounding technology and innovation. Finally, an exciting new book from Thomson South-Western’s Texere imprint presents a comprehensive outline of methods for stripping away much of this ambiguity.
Comprehensive and cohesive, “Hunter or Hunted?” delivers a powerful resource packed with practical s to help readers fully comprehend strategic choice and behavior relating to technology. An excellent book that both managers and engineers (and not just in high-tech industries) should read.'
Imagine a planet inhabited by cities like 'Mega-City One,' a megalopolis of over 400 million people across the east coast of the United States, featured in the Judge Dredd comic or 'San Angeles, formed from the joining of Los Angeles, Santa Barbara, San Diego, and the surrounding metropolitan regions following a massive earthquake.
Don't hold your breath: the 21st century will soon have 19 cities with populations of 20 million or more.
The history of the human species is a history of migration. In 1000 A.D. Cordova, Spain was the largest city. By 1500, Bejing began its rise to power, and 300 years later it was the first city to be over a million people. By 1900 London emerged the world's supercity with over 6 million people. In 1950 New York was proclaimed the first "megacity" with a population of over 10 million people in the greater metropolitan area.
How is increasing mass urbanization affecting the quality of life? 1.4 million people are moving into cities each week. How will this vast migration change the way we live and die; how we treat the elderly, the poor, the way work, trade, learn, the way we eat, consume, recycle, power, engineer, innovate?
While some say the world is flat, supercities are rising - vast, intensely urban hubs will radically redefine the world's future macroeconomic and cultural landscape. Most of the world's population right now lives and works in cities. Many more will. It's critical to gain a truer understanding of what's happening: the rise of supercities is the defining megatrend of the 21st century.
In 1800 only 3% of the world's population lived in cities; 47% by the end of the twentieth century. In 1950, there were 83 cities with populations exceeding one million; by 2007, this had risen to 468 urban areas of more than one million.
If the current trend continues, the world's urban population will double every 38 years. The UN forecasts that today's urban population of 3.2 billion will rise to nearly 5 billion by 2030, when three out of five people will live in cities. By 2050 two-thirds of the world’s population will live in cities, up from about 50% right now.
The world’s population of slum dwellers increases by 25 million every year. The majority of these numbers come from the fringes of urban margins, located in legal and illegal settlements with insufficient housing and sanitation. This has been caused by the massive migration, both internal and transnational, into cities.
The greatest population increase will be most dramatic in the poorest and least-urbanized continents, Asia and Africa. Surveys and projections indicate that all urban growth over the next 25 years will be in developing countries, where one billion people, one-sixth of the world's population, now live in slum-level conditions; breeding grounds for crime, addiction, alcoholism, poverty and unemployment. By 2030, over 2 billion people in the world will be living in these mega-ghettoes.
If current trends continue, nearly 1-billion people will live in China's cities by 2025. Click here to see dynagram.
Saturday, 30 January 2010
Cooler is smaller.
Scheduled for launch next month (March 2010), Indian Godrej - a brand not so well known in the West, but massive in Asia - has announced the world's lowest-cost refrigerator, the Chotukool.
Weighing 7.8kg, the refrigerator uses a cooling chip and fan alongside high-end insulation, meaning that the appliance uses half the power of a conventional device and can also be run from a battery.
At a price of c.$69 (£45), the Chotukool also costs around 35% less than the cheapest refrigerators currently available.
Obviously ripe for developing nations, and fair to say good demand in westen student dens, singles and first base flats.
Wednesday, 27 January 2010
Think About It!
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Saturday, 23 January 2010
Re-visualizing Molecular Science.
I vividly remember being ed on occasion through secondary-school education because ‘atoms’ where consistently presented as these perfect slick round little spheres. At one time I even called the teacher a fabricator of lies and shouted: “Atoms aren’t balls!!”.
Of course the poor man couldn’t help it, as it was just decided to teach us high-school kids a outdated, simplified 19th century version of the atom , rather than confusing us with subatomic particles like protons, neutron, up-quarks, down-quarks, gluons and what do you have nowadays.
In retrospect I was just a kid trying to be witty after having flipped through some of the science magazines of my dad, who was a physicist. Nonetheless, I always remained keen on the underestimated role of simulations in modern science.
Recently, a new problem has emerged for molecular scientists. For many decennia they have used a world-wide accepted way of representing molecules, even though these molecules have never really been seen. Unfortunately, this language is not suitable to represent the increasing complexity of the molecular systems and dynamic processes that are subject of modern research. … I think that a breakthrough in this area is only possible with ideas of people with different specialisms.
Bioluminescent Trees and Plants in the Street, Shop, School, Office and Home?
It's funny really. 20 years ago I worked at Concord Lighting - a top gun commercial lighting manufacturer - as a Design Engineer. I'd scratch my head as to where lighting - the common-a-garden artifacts in your den, bathroom and kitchen - would go next.
Most people know about light emitting organisms such as jellyfishes, fireflies and mushrooms. Some time ago, genetic engineers transferred genes responsible for the luciferin and luciferase proteins into a tobacco plant. These firefly proteins were then manufactured by the tobacco plant, causing it to glow and emit light.
What if this technology could be extended further to say, a maple tree or a juniper bush? Designer Audrey Richard-Laurent speculates on combining trees and streetlights into bioluminescent trees.
In urban areas, one usually sees a row of trees parallel to streetlights. Why not hybridize them? An elegant, yet far fetched idea? Don’t be to sure.
Bioluminescenceworks to replicate processes for creating light found in chemical reactions in the natural world–such as with certain jellyfish or bacteria–for human purposes.
Chemiluminescence refers to the emission of light with limited emission of heat as a result of chemical reaction. Many researchers feel that both of these processes have the potential to produce sustainable, non-petroleum-based light sources.
Other potential applications might be glow in the dark designer pets, agricultural crops and domestic plants that luminesce when they need watering, new methods for detecting bacterial contamination of meats and other foods and glowing grass on golf yards that allow you to play golf after dark.
Fancy a Photonic Tatto? Their coming!
Tuesday, 12 January 2010
Nanoscale Engineering is Flying Ahead.
Scientists have made batteries and supercapacitors with little more than ordinary office paper and some carbon and silver nanomaterials.
The research, published online December 7 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, brings scientists closer to lightweight printable batteries that may one day be molded into computers, cell phones or solar panels.
Stronger than steel, as light as air and more flexible than rubber:a truly 21st century muscle.
NanoTech, Institute at the University of Texas at Dallas, has made a nano material that could make artificial limbs, smart skins, shape-changing structures, ultra-strong robots and eventually highly-efficient solar cells.
'It can generate about 30 times the force per unit area of natural muscle,' they say.
Carbon nanotubes have fascinated material scientists since the early 1990s, when researchers started to explore the ultra-light, ultra-strong cylindrical molecules.
Carbon nanotubes are already used in bicycle components, and in prototypes of airplanes, bulletproof clothing, transistors, and ropes that might someday be used to tether a space elevator (On a historical note, carbon nanotube-infused steel was used to made Damascus blades, renowned as history’s sharpest swords, though the technique has been lost).
The latest muscle is made from bundles of vertically aligned nanotubes that respond directly to electricity. Lengthwise, the muscle can expand and contract with tremendous speed; from side-to-side, it’s super-stiff. Its possibilities may only be limited by the imaginations of engineers.
This apparently unprecedented degree of anisotropy — direction-dependent physical properties — is akin to having diamond-like behavior in one direction, and rubber-like behavior in the others.
Sunday, 10 January 2010
Fit for Coke!
I can't yet buy Organic Coca Cola in Brighton (UK). It's been put the the States and China for over 2 years. Shame, cos it's not a bad thirst quencher.
Anyhow there's more to the anecdote here:
In 1982 the Coca Cola Company addressed the negative aspect of its drink with the introduction of a sugar-free version of the Ice-cold sunshine. Diet Coke was the first new coke brand since 1886 and signified a revolution for the brand.
Numerous coke by-products followed in the slipstream: Cherry Coke, Caffeine-Free Coke, Classic Coke, Vanilla Coke, Coca-Cola Orange, Coke Zero, Coke Black Cherry Vanilla and many more.
The latest addition to Coca Cola product range could mean a new revolution in fast-food: Diet Coke Plus not only reduces calories or ads a flavor,it actually improves your health.
Diet Coke Plus is fortified with vitamins and minerals. One can already provides 25% of the daily value for niacin and vitamins B6 and B12, and 15% for zinc and magnesium, so if you drink four cans a day, you've got your it all covered; Diet Coke Plus: better than the real thing!
Friday, 8 January 2010
Mouse Teeth and the End of the Dentist as We Know It.
A mouse has grown a new tooth in place of a lost molar.
But hold on! We've all done that as a kin.
Well the news is it's a tooth that come via a new breakthrough in bioengineering. It has the same performance properties of the old tooth, and is strong and durable enough to allow the mouse to chew food normally over it's life.
To create the new tooth, the researchers @ Tokyo University of Science took 'Epithelial' cells and 'Mesenchymal' cells (about 50,000 each) from a mouse embryo and cultivated them together in a collagen-based medium to create a tiny tooth bud — a mass of tissue that has the potential to develop into a tooth.
They then implanted the 0.5-mm tooth bud into the jawbone of an mouse in place of a lost tooth. After 37 days, a new tooth sprouted, and after 50 days, it had grown to the same height as the adjacent teeth. The bioengineered tooth has the same hardness as ordinary teeth and it contains vessels and nerves, making it sensitive to external stimuli and pain.
This research is expected to advance the development of 'tooth regenerative therapy,' which one day will allow doctors to replace diseased or damaged teeth with bioengineered teeth grown from stem cells such as induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells.
This type of treatment could not only ultimately eliminate the need for dentures and false teeth, but grow artificial teeth with new performance properties.
Imagine: once you have your new set, no more dentist, self-cleaning teeth, super-strong, and eventual teeth grown to your own design specification. Within a decade, start looking out for designer teeth shaped as Jewelry!!!
To demonstrate a new method for fabricating three-dimensional living biological structures, researchers at the University of Tokyo’s Institute of Industrial Science (IIS) have created a 5-millimeter tall doll composed of living cells.
Researchers created the tiny figurine by cultivating 100,000 cell capsules of 0.1 millimeter balls of collagen, each coated with dozens of skin cells.
After the cell capsules had coalesced to form the doll-shaped mass of tissue, it was placed in a culture solution, where it reportedly survived for more than a day.
The researchers also successfully tested the biofabrication method with human liver cells. The technique can laso be used to create bodily organs and tissues with complex cellular structures, which may prove useful in the fields of regenerative medicine and development.
This is merely the beginning. Click here to discover more in the fantasic journey of the emerging Bioworld.
Thursday, 7 January 2010
Systemic Foresight Methodology.
The Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIIR) are working on an EU project for uses of Futures Studies on government policy in an attempt to adapt to an ever faster, more discontinuous world.
MIIR point out that when we consider a major futures driver such as breakthrough or disruptive technology (self-assembled nanobots, holographic microprocessors, £495 desktop 3D printers @ home, artificial telepathy - all noted in this blog over the years) people tend to ask what is feasible and what we are sure will work. We are less likely to ask what we want, what is desirable, what we need to get on.
MIIR have developed a methodology called Systemic Foresight, which allows annalists to map influences on the system, pointing to distractions to avoid, as well as issues to focus on. Its use leads on to a Transformation phase, at which the finding can be applied to ‘lead to a better world.’
The analysis methodology shows that geopolitical and security issues generate most Wild Cards and Uncertainties; that new science and technology produce most discontinuities; and that society and culture produce the most Weak Signals hinting at the future.
In terms of a timeline the project regards:
(1) Environmental and financial crises as the biggest issues for the period from 2010 to 2016 (e.g.; mass displacement, little money in pocket, global financial melt down).
(2) Aging population from 2016 to 2025 (e.g.; people living longer however with ill-health, so pension funds dry-up, and then no Beer at the Inn).
(3) While climate change and fundamental resource scarcity (e.g.; Siberian winters in Spain and higher Oil, Water, Pizza prices) are the main concerns beyond 2025.
I found the slide show (below) outlining the method quiet interesting. My only comment is that they are addressing issues we know well, gaining public momentum, with multiple intergovernmental strategies and plans to ‘lead to a better world.’
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What I would ask is that MIIR now move on to issues that concerned nations are not already addressing. For example, what of the interdisciplinary impact across these issues? How they act as a complex interconnected system? Further, what of the technologies not yet on the strategic agenda, yet will turnout to not be merely instrumental in solving critical problems, but make them wholly irrelevant.
As I say people tend to look and ask for what is feasible, what is sure to work. Because it's safe, more politically inert, and in the short-term keeps the wolf from the door. As a result, we are much less likely to ask what we want, what is desirable, what we need to get on.
Further, even some of the most forward futurists back down, almost intuitively, on cutting-edge breakthrough innovations and archetype events.
For example, what are the 'new laws of economics' not only in an interconnected world, but in a world of instant production in your home. What happens to the distribution infrastructure, when most things - from cloths to computers to mosquito nets - are made of diamondoidnanostructures @ home or a tree house or shack by a smallish size device, that's mains gas fed?
What happens to abject poverty when nanomanufacturing hits a point when it can instantly produces hot soup and a roll from raw soil, waste and even sewage? What happens to the economy, the ecolology?
And one of the biggest human cultural questions of all: 'What will change everything.' Is there anything on the horizon that will? Please click on and see.
In sum: we need to look at the future with much deeper systemic foresight; and take a courageous look at the many archetype issues not yet on the map.
I'd though I'd leave you this year with a mind blower.... Well it is 2010.
A new paper reports that scientist have now created a mouse from basic 'human' stems cell. Yes, from dumb tissue extraced from a you and me (transhumanists eat your heart out).
The paper reads:
'... cells are derived from ordinary skin cells, and when they were created two years ago from human skin and genetically reprogrammed, it was hailed as a breakthrough. But questions remained whether they could act as chameleon-like as embryonic stem cells and morph into any cell type in the body..... One way to show that versatility is if the new reprogrammed stem cells could be used to produce an entire new life.'
New life forms A!
Don't over do it tonight! There maybe Frankenstien Mouse about!
'A Technological, Political and Institutional Map or Emerging Technologies.'
This is a well researched, well organised, and well presented 'Futures' paper.
However, it does what I see far to often. It panders to political will and dogma. It bends to the risk that some of the emerging technologies will not go as far, if at all.
In short, it lacks guts and determination. It presents the data not in a conservative light, but a skeptical one.
There are indeed risks in many new technologies, but that is part-and-parcel of the research. 30 percent of Nanotechnology research budgets, worldwide, is spent on ethical research and rick evaluation and monitoring.
Carbon Nanotubes are Casigenetic. Fact. But so is burnt Toast at breakfast! Risk reduction by design and organisation is the plan in action.
Nanomedicine: Vol I; and Vol IIA; by Robert Freitas.
Nanomedicine Volume I, is a first of a kind. An archetype. But it’s much more than that, more than a book on technological therapies for illness, it stretches far beyond what we now know.
The table of contents (below) is extended in some detail by clicking here. I'd recommend a quick look!
1: The Prospect of Nanomedicine.
2: Pathways to Molecular.
3: Molecular Transport and Sortation.
4: Nanosensors and Nanoscale Scanning.
5: Shapes and Metamorthic Surfaces.
6: Power.
7: Communication.
8: Navigation.
9: Manipulation & Locomotion.
10: Other Basic Capabilities.
The reading material is, at its very least, a book that turns scientific dreams into facts.
It’s the foundation of Nanomedicine; the use, in medicine, of bacteria sized programmable machines, constructed using molecular nanotechnology.
It sets the limits and possibilities of how nanoscale robots (nanobots) may function in the repair, maintenance and eventual augmentation of the human body.
Nanomedicine will be of interest to physicians, physicists, chemists, biologists, bioengineers as well as nonscientists who wonder how advanced technology may be used to solve currently unsolved problems in medicine. Anyone who considers themselves a 'futurist' or who is interested in aspects of nanotechnology should consider the book 'required reading'.
Even individuals who doubt the possibility of molecular nanoassembly will find this series useful due to the quantity and diversity of material relating to computing, human physiology, molecular biology and nanoscale physics that are brought together.
And more:
In Vol IIA Freitas has turned out a remarkable volume of information. It is probably useful to have read Nanomedicine Volume 1 before reading Volume IIA, but Volume IIA can be read on its own particularly if one has a biological or medical education (I've not).
Its emphasis is on whether we can expect nanotechnology based devices to be able to operate within the human body, but it also deals with whether or not certain aspects of nanotechnology might be dangerous to biological life in general. I thought the aspects of the book that identified the areas where we lack knowledge at this time to be particularly useful.
For example, topics are pointed out that still need deep research. The book is excellent in suggesting solutions for problems we can anticipate at this time in the area of biocompatibility.
This work is particularly timely because groups such as the ETC Group and Greenpeace have recently released reports that might reflect negatively on nanotechnology. This book provides a partial basis for informed debate on the risks vs the benefits of nanotechnology.
Since medical applications of nanotechnology may save 100's of millions of lives annually; arguing against it requires very strong arguments. Anyone who has not read this book and attempts to criticize the development of nanotechnology for biological applications can probably be considered poorly informed.
Sunday, 27 December 2009
If you've just read my post above, then this will only confirm that Nanomedicine is real and heading our way.
For decades, scientists and fiction writers alike have been fascinated by the possibility of tiny machines that can enter a patient, travel to otherwise inaccessible regions, and then diagnose or repair problems with far less pain and with far greater precision than existing medical procedures.
In his famous speech from 1959, 'There’s Plenty of Room at the Bottom', Richard Feynman, an American physicist, called this concept “swallow the surgeon”. More recently proponents of nanotechnology have imagined swarms of 'nanobots;' tiny machines just billionths of a meter, or nanometeres, across, that might fix mutations in a person’s DNA or kill off cancer cells before they have a chance to develop into a tumour.
People in the field acknowledge that there are many obstacles to overcome. A big problem, for example, is how to provide power to tiny medical robots. Batteries can provide enough energy for passive capsules like the Pillcam, but robots with active locomotion pose more of a challenge, and micro-robots are likely to need more energy than batteries can store at such small scales. Instead of adding a power source to the device, which increases its weight and bulk, one approach is to apply external magnetic fields to a small robotic device that contains magnetic material, allowing it to be steered simply by controlling the magnetic fields around it.
This has several advantages. For one thing most hospitals already have an MRI machine, so there is no need to construct or buy additional equipment. Furthermore, as well as propelling a magnetic device through the body, an MRI machine can also locate it.
Last year the team achieved a milestone when it manoeuvred a 1.5-millimetre bead through a 5-millimetre artery in a living pig. Since then the researchers have reduced the bead’s size to about 250 micrometres.
Want to find out more? Then click here and visit the conference website.
Sunday, 20 December 2009
Passive structure design of 'Wind Energizer' by 'Leviathan Energy Inc' reportedly increases wind turbine efficiency 30% in field tests.
They say in a report:
'Technological advancements in wind energy efficiency have generally come incrementally and usually made via a process of increasingly large wind turbine blades . Put simply: longer blades meant more output per turbine.
But that pattern of incremental improvements may be a thing of the past if Leviathan Energy has anything to say about it.
Leviathan Energy has completed initial testing on their Wind Energizer unit and is reporting gains in wind turbine output in the ballpark of 30% — and as much as 150% at lower wind speeds.
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The principle theory at work:
By placing passive objects around a wind farm will change the circulation or wind around a large turbine. The advancement is not in the turbine itself, but rather in the area around it
Units can be adapted to any wind turbine from any manufacturer.
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“This is a disruptive technology.... We are changing the environment of the wind turbine; this is a very different approach." they say.'
Brit Tech Genius: 10 Innovators Changing Your World.
Think all your gadgets are dreamt up across the pond or in secret Far East bunkers owned by the world’s biggest tech titans? Think again. Britain is at the forefront when it comes to bleeding edge gadgetry, whether it’s the latest shiny must-have from Apple, or a motor that’s all set to break the land speed record. It’s easy to forget British boffins are behind some of the world’s greatest gadgets so, without further ado, here are my top 10 British innovators you need to know.
Jonny Ive, Senior Vice President of Industrial Design at Apple: Every modern day Apple gadget owes its existence to one man. Not Steve Jobs, but Jonny Ive, the Chingford (UK) born designer who’s been in charge of Cupertino’s industrial design since 1997. In that time he’s created the classic iMac, turned the MP3 player from niche plaything to global phenomenon with the iPod, and made touchscreens work seamlessly on the iPhone. .
Ive’s a shy genius, rarely speaking about his work and showing his face in public even less often. He’s most frequently found toeing the company line in official Apple videos, but the clip below from American TV show Objectified shows him more relaxed, working in his studio, and explaining the thought processes which keeps him at the top of the tech design pile.
James Dyson, inventor the Dyson Dual Cyclone: Dyson’s first vacuum cleaner, the G-Force, was sidelined when it was first unleashed in the 80s. Yet it’s follow-ups have set the tone for household gadgets all over the world. With the Dyson Dual Cyclone now found in the home of every self-respecting cleanliness freak Dyson has set his sights further afield.
Not content with fighting dust, Dyson’s Airblade hand drier has called time on weak-willed air blowers in loos across the globe, and earlier this year he set out to change desktop fans forever with his Dyson Air Multiplier.
Tim Berners Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web Without Tim Berners Lee, what you’re doing right now might not be possible. The British engineer developed the www back in 1989, going on to build the first ever web browser and web server.
After the first website was built in 1991, Berners Lee’s creation went from niche networking to global colossus in ten short years. Tell me you could live without the world wide web now and you’d be lying.
John Piper, Chief Designer, Hound: You might not have heard of John Piper, but pay attention: Piper’s car, Hound, isn’t like other motors. That’s because it’s being primed to top 1,000mph in 2011, smashing the world land speed record in the process.
Whizzing by in a faster-than-sound blur, it’ll be driven by current record holder, Wing Commander Andy Green. Piper recently finished the design of Hound, positioning a small rocket underneath the engine of a Eurofighter jet. He reckons it’ll be enough to bring him success with the landspeed record, and cements him a place on my list of British tech giants.
Gordon Murray, McLaren F1 designer turned eco car maker: Murray is known as the man behind the McLaren F1 sports car. But he’s all set to make a name for himself at the bleeding edge of eco motoring with the T.27, a brand new type of electric car that’ll be ready to roll on British streets in just under two years.
A completely new concept, Murray is hoping to have s built and on sale by 2011. It’ll have a top seed of 60mph when it hits the tarmac in 18 months time, weighing around half the mass of today’s ‘leccy motors at 600Kg. At the moment, Murray’s prototypes look like he’s hammered them together in a shed, but he’s got form for creating fantastic cars in the past, and could be about to start a Prius-style revolution right here in the UK.
Trevor Baylis, inventor of the clockwork radio: Baylis is best known for inventing the clockwork radio, letting people snaffle signals without relying on batteries or the mains for their breakfast banter. His Freeplay radio, as it became known, was first unleashed in Africa, before a smaller hit the UK.
Since then Baylis has become a champion of British inventors, helping young bucks bring their high tech dreams to reality with the Trevor Baylis Foundation.
Kane Kramer, inventor of the Digital Audio Player: While Jonny Ive may have brought the MP3 player to the masses, it’s possible the iPod would never have happened without Kane Kramer. The British inventor first conceived a Digital Audio Player (DAP) back in 1979, also touting the idea of downloading music of your phone line and something that looks very much like an Apple store. It may have seemed mad back then, but he was bang on the money.
Kramer’s original drawings of a DAP clearly show a slab like device that many of us would recognise as an iPod today. In 1979 though, his ideas were seen as marginal. Apple was even moved to recognise Kane’s idea in 2007, although it won’t be stumping up any cash in return for making it popular.
Peter Molyneux, creator of Fable, Theme Park and Milo: Britain’s gaming industry is teeming with successful developers that are the envy of the world. But Molyneux has been a leading light in the world of video games since the 80s. Classics such as Theme Park, Populous and Fable all bear his hallmark. And he’s not shuffling off into retirement yet.
Molyneux is one of the driving forces behind the Xbox 360’s Project Natal. At its launch, he showed off a project dubbed Milo and the forthcoming Fable 3. If a gaming technology has Molyneux behind it, you’re guaranteed big crowds, and with his vote firmly in Natal’s ballot box he’s already making sure British games studios are taking Microsoft’s system seriously.
Richard Palmer, founder D3O: D3O is about to revolutionise gadgets. You might not know its name, but it’s one of the world’s first smart materials, and it was invented by a Brit! Chemical engineer Richard Palmer set up his own business to create the substance, which acts like silly putty in your hands, but stiffens up to absorb shocks and bumps whenever it’s hit.
It’s a silicon polymer that has the look and feel of playdoh, and is already in laptop and iPod cases from Tech 21, saving your precious tech from taking a battering. Palmer also says it could go into body armour too. Think futuristic football shin pads that mould to your legs but harden up when you’re hit by a crunching tackle. Smart materials are the future, and Palmer proves you needn’t be a mega multinational to make your mark.
Sir Howard Stringer, CEO Sony: Stringer hasn’t had it easy heading up one of the planet’s biggest tech giants. But his Sony United plan has made the gadget colossus more lean, better focused and able to make the most of its assets.
His first triumph was with the robotic Rolly. The device itself was never going to be a huge seller, but it let Stringer pull together Sony’s Walkman, Aibo and mobile teams to create a single product that was more than the sum of its parts. It was niche and bizarre, and stole headlines while proving that Sony’s sprawling divisions could work together effectively. And he hasn’t stopped there.
With the likes of the PlayStation 3’s XMB interface heading to Sony Ericsson phones and onto Blu-ray players, he’s helped Sony’s products have one core interface. The impending Sony Online Service, flogging eBooks, music and video will also be a huge match for iTunes, finally turning Sony’s ragtag army of products into a unified fighting force ready to stomp all over tech rivals.
eSolar Inc., has engineered a paradigm shift in CSP technology.
eSolar designs and develops utility-scale Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) projects starting at 46 MW. The eSolar power plant utilized small mirrors which track the sun with high precision and reflect the sunlight to a tower-mounted receiver, which boils water to create steam. This steam powers a traditional turbine and generator to produce solar electricity.
The simple concept of making renewable energy cost-competitive with fossil fuel energy has driven eSolar to engineer a paradigm shift in CSP technology, providing a cost-effective and scalable solution.
eSolar builds an individual 46 MW power unit on 160 acres (64 hectares) and can scale up to 500 MW or larger capacity with multiple units. The utility-scale CSP power plant is based on mass-manufactured components and designed for rapid construction, uniform modularity, and unlimited scalability.
It’s Christmas (again), and So Time for an End of Year Story.
'Galen Point.'
People - lots of people - challenge me about my work in and around Future Studies. Not only its legitimacy, but its practicality. ‘You just can’t predict the future.’ they say.
To begin with my Futurology work really is much more than mere projection; but looking towards how we can put together a better, smarter, fairer and more-capable world. It's about tracking trend-lines and directions so that strategies, plans and new ventures can be designed and realised in structured and pragmatic way.
But it's even more than that!
The best rational/empirical future thinkers are good historians. I don't mean knowledge of lots of dates and events, or even the meanings and the lessons we can learn from the past. But more. My favorite part of the job is to show how far we have come based on the evidence, and thus potentially how far we can go in the short, medium and extremely long-term. How far we can improve the human condition, our lives, the planet and much much more.
So, let me take you on a journey. Let’s go back in time!
Let’s go back in time to around AD 149; roughly 2000 years ago. You are invited to a dinner party. Not any dinner party, but a doo at the Great Galen’s home, in the Court of the Emperor Marcus Aurelius.
Galen gained fame as a surgeon to the gladiators of Pergamos; and taking Hippocrates’ notions of pathology, Galen incorporated and developed anatomical knowledge. He was the first experimental physiologists, researching the function of the kidneys and the spinal cord in controlled experiments (c.2000 years ago).
A man of acute intellect, reason and vision. A man that not only innovated, but thought way, way ahead.
And so to Dinner.
We meet, seat, eat, and drink Bacchus’ great wines, to the point where our tongues and minds loosen and open up.
Galen:'Arrr, thank you for joining me at my table.’
You: ‘Delighted.’
Galen:‘You know? I see something in you! But I can’t quite make it out. You seem to have some foresight in you, vision even. Let me ask you, and bearing in mind, I’ve been thinking about the future of medicine for many, many years now. What do you think we can achieve? How far can medicine go?’
You:‘I don’t know, I’m not a physician. But I am a bit of a futurist (you say coming from year 2009). Well, I see a day when physicians, such as yourself, will have tools that allow you to see inside the human body in sub-microscopic detail, in real-time. You’ll have tools that will automate not only routine sugary, but the complex transplant of organs such as the heart, liver, kidney and lungs. You’ll have medication that will halt tremendous pain, almost instantaneously. Cure vicious infections overnight. Prophetic limbs that enable people to run faster than folk with human limbs. That scourge, you cannot quite get your head around now, that eats the body away (Cancer), will become so well understood that over 80% of people that are diagnosed with it will overcome it and resume normal lives. You’ll have technology such as artificial eyes, that will allow the blind to see……’
Galen interrupts.
Galen:'Now, now my dear fellow, all that wine has gone to your head…. "Artificial eyes." "Instant pain killers." "The transplanting of vital organs by machines." Come, come my dear boy/girl… Well, I must say, you do have vivid imagination. Still, if only that vision would be true!...... It’s getting late, I’ll think I’ll retire; perhaps we can meet again and carry on this visionary dream. "Artificial Eyes" indeed…. Good night.’
You’re off home, back to the future. Good’ol 2009 (and 2010+). But you truly, madly, deeply begin to wonder?
You think:‘Galen lived c.2000 years ago. And made tremendous breakthroughs in medical practice, experimentation, understanding and medication.... So I wonder what the next decade, century will bring (you think)?...... And good job I didn't even begin to mention about heaver than air machines that fly 75-thousand feet in the air faster than the speed of sound. Airplanes that use tap-water (and soon sea water) as fuel input. 3D-TV. Hyperphones. WiMax Internet. Commercial Space Flight. Men on the Moon. A plan for The Mission to Mars. Nanotechnology. Artificial Intelligence; and Heaven forbid Star-Trek!.... Yes, I wonder what will happen in time?’
So:
Of course, from Galen's point of view, in his own time, he could not have appreciated (even begun to conceive) the projections (now facts) you could have made at his dinner table. What you now know is all well and true.
.
Such as the facts that:
Visual prosthesis such as'Artificial Retinal Implants' are now allowing the partially, even the profoundly blind Grandfather to see his teenage Grandchildren for the very first time (re: my Post Sunday 29 November 2009).
And that 'Tomographic Scanners'have reached a point where biological detail can be seen at the nano-scale (spacial and temporal), meaning greater elucidation of dreadful neurological problems such as Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s and Stroke (re: my Post Sunday, 28 March 2008).
And so, to conclude:
The 'Galen Point' is a fact of our lives. We are obscured to such wondrous futures because of the time, place and context we live in.
Our horizons are not often that far away, and for most the far future is merely the next day or perhaps the planning of an event some months or years away (e.gs.; a holiday or a new product). We are obscured by the unimaginative, political and acutely myopic media. With day-to-day preoccupation: family, work, bills and the loft-conversion.
It's so easy to get trapped in those kind of Galen Points. So easy to fall into a pattern where we take things for granted. Where all that is around us has been here forever and day.
But it hasn't.
It's taken 4.5 billion years for life to evolve on this planet to a point where you are now reading this blogpost. What will happen in the next 4.5 billion years (ever cross your mind)? Practically speaking what will happen in the next 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 1000 and more years (ever think about it)?
My last point is, it does not just have to happen. You can have a hand in the future. You can break out of the Galen Point by not only appreciating the power of methodological Futures Studies, but engage in it. Learn the skills and tools of objectively projecting the future. Because a Futurist job is to smash and breakthrough through the limited Galen Point. To see, and build a future that benefits us all.
Wishing 'You' an Inventive Christmas and Visionary New Year.
Chris Harris.
Sunday, 13 December 2009
A Sussex University student just asked me a rather curious question:
'How did I get to the top of my game?'
Here's how the conversation went:
Student:'Chris liked the article on you in Omni Magazine. But, how did you do it. I mean, get to the top of your profession?'
Me:'Easy! I started at the top!'
Student:'What!? That's rubbish. How can you start at the top. You have to work your way up.'
Me:'That's the least of it. Because you to can start at the top of your field if you invent it.... If you do something original, and, of course by definition, there's nobody else doing it, and master the discipline of innovation, you start out at the top. The trick is to keep being original, keep innovating, be constantly different, but relevant to the time, and always keep a good eye on the future.'
Student: 'Oh. Oh I see... Your round of drinks then Chris!'
Rene Daalder's SpaceCollective.
I'v known Rene Daalder's - the Dutch writer/director – MIND BLOWING work for sometime. In fact I remember vividly the night and where I first experienced it.
Daalder is regarded as a pioneer of Virtual Reality and digital motion picture technologies. He's made many cult films (see wiki). Producing some highly acclaimed, award winning, culminating in directorial feature film debut ‘The White Slave.’
Often operating at the cutting-edge of his field and heavily involved with special effects, software development and music, Daalder has gained worldwide recognition as a pioneer of Virtual Reality and digital motion picture technologies.
His Los Angeles based company ‘American Scenes Inc’ consults for computer imaging studios all over the world and develops technology-driven TV show formats as well as groundbreaking community driven website projects, with interaction designer Folkert Gorte.
Daalder - a man of many firsts - developed digital film making tools and movie projects at NYITÕs Computer Graphics Lab, which spawned the Computer Graphic medium we know today, ranging from SGI to George Lucas' Industrial, Light and Magic and Pixar. Daalder created computer effects and consulted, are RobocopII, Lawnmower Man, Michael Apted's Blink, Brainscan and the X-Files TV series.
His new piece ‘Strawberry Fields’, a computer animated musical feature film and gaming event for which Daalder and his partners have secured the rights to 40 Beatles songs, is now in production.
Only, once again he has blown my mind. His website: 'SpaceCollective.’ Is a multimedia gallery of 'The Future of Everything.' Panning across his and others work, showing an extraordinary array of mini-to-max-vids, hyperthinking and fascinating futurism!
Please take a look at his site. Click Here. But be warned: it's a multidimensional future ride!
Alternatively you can also view his personal site by clicking here.
Saturday, 12 December 2009
New Book: Elizabeth Grossman and the Green Chemistry Revolution.
Title: 'Chasing Molecules.'
Toxic chemicals are seemingly ubiquitous. Since everything on Earth is Hyperinterconnected, chemicals intended for one use, in one product, can easily find their way into other things, like soil, air, water and bodies.
Scientists have been trying to determine where toxic chemicals are ending up, and the results are shocking: Dangerous chemicals are even being found in the blood of newborn babies. These alarming facts are what investigative journalist Elizabeth Grossman came across while researching her latest book.
Grossman said she became increasingly disturbed by the amount of chemicals that were being found in our consumer products. It all began when she wanted to know why the Center for Disease Control (CDC) was finding the exact same chemicals in polar bears, newborn babies and our food. After asking why, she began wondering if it was possible to do any better. Could products and the chemicals they are created from be made environmentally ‘benign by design?’
She says that there is a solution: green chemistry. Green chemists are redesigning the future and learning from nature to create new, non-harming chemicals and products.
Without green chemistry will be entering into a very dangerous world. Many of the chemicals she was chasing are endocrine disruptors, which have the ability to change our genetic makeup. They can mess with reproduction and lead to an increase in fat cells, which leads to higher rates of diabetes and slower metabolism. They have been shown to reduce sperm count and also mess with neurological function. Grossman quotes Theo Colburne as saying that without green chemistry the future is going to be "fat, stupid and impotent.
But, it's not so easy to convince some industries to become green, as many of the harmful chemicals that are being used have been on the market since the 1930s. The research has been done and the products made. Many companies, too entrenched in the old ways, do not see the benefit of redesigning their entire line.
Without strong political will and support to discontinue dangerous chemical use, companies stuck in their ways will continue to use harmful methods, and chemicals will continue to find their way into every aspect of our ecosystem.
For those who are new to the toxic chemical debate, Chasing Molecules provides a strong argument for the implementation of green chemistry. For those who are aware and motivated, it provides a hopeful look at the benign design revolution already taking place.
Read it.... If not wait for the publication of my new book: 'New Industrial Revolution.'
Friday, 11 December 2009
Picture of Airplane Hydrogen Fuel-Cell
It's gonna-be cheaper, more efficient, ecologically cleaner and safer to fly in the future.
I for one am over-the-moon with the pace of the R&D in Aeronautical Hydrogen Fuel Cell Technology.
Commercial jet engines that run off water, use anode/cathode molcular convertion systems to split the H2O molecule, then use the hydrogen as power-fuel, whilst spitting out the Oxygen into the atmosphere.
And too boot: fly through the clouds and refuel for free! There's even breakthrough work-in-progress using sea water. Much work to do, but the push-through is happening.
Read the post below: It's happening now.
Airplane Launches On Fuel-Cell Power
This Tuesday, the Antares DLR-H2 took off at Hamburg Airport in Germany using only power from Hydrogen Fuel Cells, a feat that its builders say is a first for a piloted aircraft.
The motorglider, built at the German Aerospace Center, flies with zero carbon-dioxide emissions and is much quieter than similar aircraft. "
This motorglider achieves new quality standards in the field of high-efficiency, zero-emission energy conversion and clearly demonstrates the progress that has been made in fuel-cell technology.
The DLR-H2 is based on the Antares 20E motorglider, and has a wingspan of 66 feet. With its fuel-cell propulsion system, the aircraft can stay aloft for five hours and reach speeds of about 105 mph.
With the successful first flight, they have verified the feasibility of fuel-cell-powered flight and their next steps will focus on improving efficiency levels and on extending the service life of these systems.
At this stage, they have only tapped into a fraction of the performance capabilities of this technology for aerospace applications. The Antares DLR-H2 will help make much greater use of these areas of potential.
To accommodate the fuel cell and its hydrogen supply, two external pods were attached under the aircraft's wings, which were reinforced to carry the load. The total efficiency of the drive system from tank to powertrain, including the propeller, is about 44 percent, making it about twice as efficient as conventional propulsion technologies based on combustion processes, according to the Aerospace Center.
For more details about the project, click here to read the Aerospace Center's lengthy news release.
Q: How many bloggers does it take to screw in a light bulb?
Rene Daalder, said @ SpaceCollective Project:
'The real answer to this timeworn question of course is one. It took just one Gandhi to set off a wave of enlightenment across the planet; and one maverick scientist by the name of Nikola Tesla to invent the electric age, prompting us to screw in a never ending supply of lightbulbs. On the other hand, the will of just one zealous despot, Adolf , almost succeeded in throwing us back into the dark ages.
It only takes one mutant cell to change the course of human evolution. And every time one internet user shares a good idea, it may exponentially reach the minds of two, four, or perhaps a million people who come across it on their non-linear path.
We owe the rapid rise of human civilization (and our ability to screw in a light bulb) to a simple evolutionary modification of our digital extremities known as the opposable thumb.
Now we have the mouse, which at this very moment puts you just one click away from playing a role in the future of everything.'
