The Year 2020: The Birth of the ‘Innovation Economy.’
Welcome to the year 2020!
It hot, is it not? However, do you recall the recession back in 2012? Well,
that was a breeze compared to what we now face in 2020! Most of us was aware of
the consequences of an economy that is interconnected. What we didn’t know was
how it would affect us now at the beginning of the 3rd decade of
2020!
The connected economy was just the beginning. Because once the richness
of interconnections hit a vital number, it reached a point of critically where
the economy began to evolve at super-accelerated rates. And that meant that the
rules of engagement fundamentally changed: It became an Innovation Economy. An innovation economy that is nonlinear, warp-speed
and counterintuitive. And the rules of such an innovation economy are
paradoxical, capricious and surprising.
Here are 4 new
rules and solutions for an economic situation we are all going to have to get
used to negotiating:
The rule of inverse productivity. Way back in the ancient 1980s
(A.D) it took 1,000+ people to run a noisy, quite treacherous steel mill. Now
it takes less than 10 people. Process technologies that control the mill are now
that advanced that most people controlling the plant sit in offices the
other-side of the world.
In new
product development it’s the same: what took 20 engineers 3 years (a landline
telephone for instance) to put into production, now takes 1 multidiscipline
engineer 1 month. Computer Aided Engineering and Analysis Systems have dropped
so dramatically in price-performance, that even the smallest company can afford
a full suite of kit from end-to-end of the design and manufacturing process.
Intelligent
service systems such as automated self-service pubs, clubs, cinemas and
restaurants are common place now. This simply and clearly means more and more,
faster and faster, smarter and smarter, for less and less direct human workers,
materials and tools. And that means the once economic Holy Grail ‘productivity’ has been going inverse
and more acute over time.
If you think
the worldwide total of 1.2 billion workers that were unemployed back in 2012 is
large; once the dozens of emerging nations achieve full blown ultra-yield technological
production systems; most of the world’s population will be unemployed.
Solution. Pumping
investment and creating sufficient numbers of new roles is important, but not
merely enough. New enterprise start-ups do sustain jobs. But, the major effort
is to inspire, create and develop a global culture of entrepreneurialship,
innovation and enterprise.
Avoid encouraging or threatening
people to look for jobs that are not there. Promote, praise, idolize
individuals that create their own productive and well paid work. Make a living
out what you enjoy. Better still, become a GigaEntrepreneur.
The rule of exponential price-performance improvements. In the
1970s, what took a room the size of a football pitch to house a computer the
size of a building with hundreds of people to design, build and maintain the
supercomputer, now costs ~30-dollars for a system that has 1,000,000 times the
processing power that is the size of your palm (Hyperphones, Ultrabooks, nxPADs, et al).
Technology is
shrinking toward the invisible, whilst performance and functionality is
expanding toward the multidimensional. Microprocessors are now Nanoprocessors handling multiple-terabytes
of data. Computer speed and memory capacity, material strength, durability,
environmental endurance is going in the same direction. In fact,
technologically, this is happening virtually everywhere.
Solution. The goal, then, is to offer leaps in functional
performance at a sustained price point. Or more and different for less, thus
driving-up volume and differentiation in sales.
The rule of digital disintermediation.
We have all heard of friction free economics. That the digital economy has
much shorter, often direct supply/value chains. The long-value/supply chain’s
tail with dozens of stages is and will continue to contract and reduce in
stages.
We saw this
happen with digital virtual products and services with the likes of Amazon.com,
iTunes.com, VEVO.com, eBay.com back in the 2000s.
And now in 2020
rapidly growing 3D-printing and additive manufacturing at home. That is machines that output basic components (washers,
screws, brackets, elemental shapes, et al) and simple electrical gadgets (TV
remote controls, digital watches, torches, et al) in one go by downloading digital models, taking the data and
turning it into real artefacts by laminated/additive synthesis.
This is
potentially the most disruptive and powerful challenge economically in 2020.
Solution. As supply chains shrink;
develop and promote systems that enable multiway supply and value creation
networks (Hyperinnovation). That is,
mass-custom innovation from home, den, garage, school, hospital, park, caravan,
car, shall I go on!
Next,
integrate design and build; unleash the data on the web. Producers and
consumers not only become pro-sumers, but economic champions and stewards.
Hence, designers and artisans now flourish. That is jewellery stylists,
sculptors, custom furniture designers and fashion aficionado thrive all from
the comfort of their home. DIY innovation has arrived!
The rule of instant retail. Commercial value-chains and associated
supply-webs have shrunk to an iota in scale. Retail shops are now mostly
automated. Again, few opportunities for employment. Another disruptive economic
conundrum to fix!
Solution. You still go for retail therapy. But the experience has
not only changed, since 2012; it has turned into safari-adventures and
wonderland excursions. High Street shopping is now a bright, fun night out on
the town or a countryside relaxing enjoying encounter. Your local shopping mall
is an adventure playground.
But you don’t
have to venture out the door to pick up your new goods or wait for FedEx to
deliver! Instant Retail is here. High
resolution holographic projectors beam your new tee-shirt or clutch bag in full
colour 3D in front of you. Ultrasonic beam projectors make the hologram touchable.
So you can not only look at it, you touch and feel it in real-time.
You like the
new gadget you’ve just eyed? So transfer your bank account details; down load
the 3D digital model to your 3D printer. Make it, take it, and off you go! Instant Retail is here!!
All of the technologies for this are
beginning to roll out of the R&D lab now in 2012. So think we’ve got
economic challenges today? The Innovation Economy is just over the horizon...Go
figure!!!